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PostPosted: Sun Oct 18, 2015 2:17 pm 
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Joined: Sun Jul 15, 2012 8:38 am
Posts: 1295
Location: West Midlands / warks border
As I haven't had my Birmingham letter I am not 100% sure what I'm saying, but bear with me :?

When sending results, I assume the last 2/3 yeas scores for each school are listed, which as we know are scores on offers day and not eventual scores.

As we know 2015 were higher due to no initial offers over PAN. This has got me thinking that the eventual score for CHB might be lower but FW and etc higher. This is my reasoning

Someone not in the know, gets a score of 240. We all know this is enough for CHB. However, these people might see the 243 and think they have no chance of getting in, so look to other schools with lower AQS.

Am I taking any sense, because this has slightly worried me a little as to how it will effect the score for FW.

Any thoughts anyone?


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 18, 2015 2:31 pm 
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Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2015 6:44 am
Posts: 1440
nervousmom wrote:
As I haven't had my Birmingham letter I am not 100% sure what I'm saying, but bear with me :?

When sending results, I assume the last 2/3 yeas scores for each school are listed, which as we know are scores on offers day and not eventual scores.

As we know 2015 were higher due to no initial offers over PAN. This has got me thinking that the eventual score for CHB might be lower but FW and etc higher. This is my reasoning

Someone not in the know, gets a score of 240. We all know this is enough for CHB. However, these people might see the 243 and think they have no chance of getting in, so look to other schools with lower AQS.

Am I taking any sense, because this has slightly worried me a little as to how it will effect the score for FW.

Any thoughts anyone?


Game theory playing out on largee scale with limited information. We spoke with friends yesterday where score below 218 but still believe they are in with a chance of KEFW. People will make all sorts of mistakes with CAF, as well. I have even messed up my form and need to redo and resubmit based on what I have gleaned on here today, so there is a spectrum. It will probably play out similarly as it did last year.

When people take decisions even individually, often flock characteristics arise, even when as people try to make the optimal decisions for themselves, based on not knowing what everyone else will do. FO know this.

That's why I am still nervy about the KE score I have. Most weeks there will be 0 or 1-2 two winners of the lottery, but just occasionally there will be 100 or so who all overcomes huge odds all at the same time. If that happens and its possible even those who think they are safe may not be.

I really do think the FO could issue some high levels analysis with the results to confirm how far things were normal, but they would then be accused of giving the numerate and unfair advantage, so were all in the dark till 1/3


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 19, 2015 10:49 am 
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Joined: Fri Oct 16, 2015 9:17 am
Posts: 468
Hi All, I called BV who confirmed that the last in from the waiting list for entry September 2015 was 215. Hope this helps.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 19, 2015 1:34 pm 
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Joined: Sun Oct 18, 2015 11:09 pm
Posts: 4
Great help Helen. thank you

Now matter of calling all my schools and finding out the same question as my son has made borderline grades on both tests.
Wouldnt the local LEA know this info, dont they deal with all allocations til september when school year starts?


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 19, 2015 9:43 pm 
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Joined: Mon Feb 02, 2015 4:29 pm
Posts: 14
My DS scored 226 last year and is happily settled at Aston.
He desperately wanted FW but still no offer from waiting list! However, we live 5 miles away.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 19, 2015 9:59 pm 
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Joined: Sat May 30, 2009 12:06 pm
Posts: 2344
Location: Birmingham
I'm happy to hear he's settled at KE Aston :D

Thank you for the info though - it is very useful.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2015 7:36 pm 
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Joined: Wed Oct 07, 2015 10:13 pm
Posts: 73
Petitpois wrote:
See info below posted by DC1 on a separate thread. NO-ONE will know cut offs, PAN or Over PAN for 2016 yet. However if your scores are borderline above or below last years cut off, the numbers below give you a sense of how the battle for a place plays out. These numbers can and indeed will change this year, so if you think things will be massively different this year ignore them.

If you think they will be broadly similar, the depth of the info combined with you own knowledge of how near you are to your preferred school, plus the final offers from waiting list e.g. I think it was 215 for KEHG, should help you make an informed decision about ordering your CAF preferences.

So if you had a hypothetical score of 214 last year and you wanted say KEHG and you were living in Ivy Road Handsworth, you know you would have been likely number 1 out of the 72 who were waiting for a place at that score (being a hundred yards or so from the school). In this scenario you still would not have got a place because the last place offered appears to have been 215, for KEHGS.


I find the KEFW example interesting because you can see several hundred sitting in the queue between 232 and 226, which according to the first post in this thread was the last number score offered (and would have been to a DC living closest to KEFW), so there were at least 50 ish at least on 226 that likely did not get an offer, but look how many shifted out the way for that DC who waited and eventually got a spot

Some people at or around the 216/7 mark are holding out are holding out for places at KEFW. They may be right and the numbers could shift markedly. If you have this list and you are borderline it at least gives you a sense of how much things have to shift for you to get a place.

This put some meat on the bones of the varied advice given to those asking the borderline type questions, will my DD get a place with this score. Hope it helps but remember its all probabilities and demographics at the end of the day

To note the CHB cut off on 1/3 was 243, so there must have been a lot of clarification for the waiting list to be at 238 by 4/3. However it did not appear to drop a great deal from there eventually settling at 236.

Waiting list status 04/03/2015

CHG
228 (waiting list 20)
226 (waiting list 37)
225 (waiting list 41)
224 (waiting list 51)
220 (waiting list 80)

CHB
238 (waiting list 39)
236 (waiting list 49)

KEHG
219 (waiting list 9)
216 (waiting list 29)
214 (waiting list 72)

KEFW
232 (waiting list 3)
230 (waiting list 14)
229 (waiting list 39)
228 (waiting list 48)
228 (waiting list 57)
226 (waiting list 59)
226 (waiting list 85)
225 (waiting list 95)
218 (waiting list 198)

KEA
218 (waiting list 47)
215 (waiting list 77)

BV
218 (waiting list 12)
215 (Waiting list 43)

SCGS
214 (waiting list 22)

HGS
206 (waiting list 23)


Hi, does anyone have any idea on the lowest offers that were given on pupil premium last year?


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 21, 2015 7:51 pm 
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Joined: Fri Aug 21, 2015 10:27 am
Posts: 149
Casey0507 wrote:
Petitpois wrote:
See info below posted by DC1 on a separate thread. NO-ONE will know cut offs, PAN or Over PAN for 2016 yet. However if your scores are borderline above or below last years cut off, the numbers below give you a sense of how the battle for a place plays out. These numbers can and indeed will change this year, so if you think things will be massively different this year ignore them.

If you think they will be broadly similar, the depth of the info combined with you own knowledge of how near you are to your preferred school, plus the final offers from waiting list e.g. I think it was 215 for KEHG, should help you make an informed decision about ordering your CAF preferences.

So if you had a hypothetical score of 214 last year and you wanted say KEHG and you were living in Ivy Road Handsworth, you know you would have been likely number 1 out of the 72 who were waiting for a place at that score (being a hundred yards or so from the school). In this scenario you still would not have got a place because the last place offered appears to have been 215, for KEHGS.


I find the KEFW example interesting because you can see several hundred sitting in the queue between 232 and 226, which according to the first post in this thread was the last number score offered (and would have been to a DC living closest to KEFW), so there were at least 50 ish at least on 226 that likely did not get an offer, but look how many shifted out the way for that DC who waited and eventually got a spot

Some people at or around the 216/7 mark are holding out are holding out for places at KEFW. They may be right and the numbers could shift markedly. If you have this list and you are borderline it at least gives you a sense of how much things have to shift for you to get a place.

This put some meat on the bones of the varied advice given to those asking the borderline type questions, will my DD get a place with this score. Hope it helps but remember its all probabilities and demographics at the end of the day

To note the CHB cut off on 1/3 was 243, so there must have been a lot of clarification for the waiting list to be at 238 by 4/3. However it did not appear to drop a great deal from there eventually settling at 236.

Waiting list status 04/03/2015

CHG
228 (waiting list 20)
226 (waiting list 37)
225 (waiting list 41)
224 (waiting list 51)
220 (waiting list 80)

CHB
238 (waiting list 39)
236 (waiting list 49)

KEHG
219 (waiting list 9)
216 (waiting list 29)
214 (waiting list 72)

KEFW
232 (waiting list 3)
230 (waiting list 14)
229 (waiting list 39)
228 (waiting list 48)
228 (waiting list 57)
226 (waiting list 59)
226 (waiting list 85)
225 (waiting list 95)
218 (waiting list 198)

KEA
218 (waiting list 47)
215 (waiting list 77)

BV
218 (waiting list 12)
215 (Waiting list 43)

SCGS
214 (waiting list 22)

HGS
206 (waiting list 23)


Hi, does anyone have any idea on the lowest offers that were given on pupil premium last year?

i too am interested to know. someone mentioned that camp hill for girls and KE handsworth were not able to fill their places last year due to lack of candidates with scores above pp cut off. camp hill pp cut off was 210 and handsworth 209. i would imagine those would be the scores of last pp childrren taken to respective schools. does that make sense?

_________________
"To show me is far better than to lecture everyday.
To lead me is far greater than to just point out the way.
So if you tell me everything then I shall understand,
But rapid streams of words cannot compete with deed of hand[...]"


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 21, 2015 7:52 pm 
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Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2015 6:44 am
Posts: 1440
Yes for example 209 at Handsworth Girls grammar, pupil premium.

Offers to one person on 219 on 1/3/15

They only managed to fill 24 out of 32 PP places last year. Due to ads and whatever this will get filled this year. Speaking to them today they said their aim was to fill all PP. If they do two things are possible

1) there could be a dramatic rise in the pupil premium floor. I have seen people saying that as long as they got the qualifying score and have confirmed PP, they are in. Possibly not this year. It feels like it will rise from 209, if they meet or exceed target of 20% applications and confirmed acceptances, then it will rise, as it must do, statistical certainty

2) there has been a year on year rise of 3 points or so for KEHGS. This year it is not unreasonable to predict 222 as the score for offer day. If all PP places above are taken that will be 8 less places available. Lowest score last year was 216 off waiting list so reasonable to assume that lowest waiting list this year might be 220.

Wont know for sure till 1/3


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 21, 2015 8:38 pm 
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Joined: Sat Sep 26, 2015 6:11 pm
Posts: 70
There must be a "best of" Slade album on iTunes :lol:


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